12The Economist双语版201307-第20页
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12The Economist双语版
都不大可能放手提供财政刺激；然而，宽松的货币政策终于初见成效；Britishshoppersapparentl；英国购物者显然也有同感：消费者信心最近几个月连连；Buttherecoveryremainsski；但复苏程度仍旧十分肤浅；Atsomepoint,thesedeeperp；Ineconomicsthefutureisal；经济学说到将来的情况都很
都不大可能放手提供财政刺激。但奥斯本风格的紧缩――即为保全国家体制内花销最大的部分而压制投资――却于事无补。上述举措意味着，紧缩将在议会换届后许久依然故我。不会为赢得竞选而推出刺激经济的举措。Yet loose monetary policy is finally starting to work. Mortgage ratesare down, giving home owners more disposable income. Moregenerous loans are available to new buyers, boosting demand.House prices have risen by 2% in a year, according to Nationwide,a lender. Rises in London and the south-east have been greater.Naysayers warn of a housing bubble. But Sebastian Graves, aneconomist at Goldman Sachs, says houses may be undervalued inBritain. In a recent paper Mr Graves calculates the “fair” value ofa house using a technique that investors apply to valuingcompanies. Rental rates are akin to the “payout” a
they are high. Mortgage rates are the cost they are low. Put together, the economically fair priceappears loftier even than current market values.然而，宽松的货币政策终于初见成效。按揭利率继续走低，这给了房屋拥有者们更多的可支配收入。新购房者可以得到条件更优的贷款，从而刺激了需求。根据按揭社“全国联盟”（Nationwide）的统计，英国房价在一年中上扬了2%，伦敦与英格兰东南地区的上涨更是高于此数。反对派在警告房屋泡沫的可能性；但高盛（Goldman Sachs）的经济学家塞巴斯蒂安?格拉夫斯（Sebastian Graves）认为，英国的房价或许还低于合理价位。在最近的一篇文章中，格拉夫斯用投资者用来对公司估价的一种方法计算了房屋的“合理”价值。租金率高企不下，它们与每所房屋每年的收益相关。按揭利率低，它们是为购房提供资金的花费。二者结合，合乎经济规律的公平价值似乎高于当前的市场价值。British shoppers apparently feel the same way: consumerconfidence has risen sharply in recent months. Since the measureis closely correlated with consumer spending―which accounts fortwo-thirds of output―there may be more decent GDP numbers onthe way. As Britons feel wealthier, they spend more.英国购物者显然也有同感：消费者信心最近几个月连连爆棚。这一测度与消费者花销密切相关，而后者占生产总量的三分之二，因此更高的GDP增长或许即将来临。一旦英国人感觉自己的钱包鼓了些，他们花起钱来就会更为大手大脚。But the recovery remains skin-deep. The bones of Britain’seconomy are rotten. Shoppers are consuming not because theyearn more but because they can borrow more. Established firmswith cash in hand are hoarding rather than investing. New firmswith ideas but no funding find it hard to borrow: the banks willlend only against property. Britain still buys far more abroad thanit sells, despite a weak currency.但复苏程度仍旧十分肤浅。英国经济已经烂到骨子里了。购物者的消费增加并不是因为他们挣得多了，而是因为他们更容易借钱了。手中资金充裕的知名公司正在积聚钱财而不是投资。有想法但缺资金的新公司发现它们很难借贷：银行只是在有资产抵押的时候才肯借钱。尽管英镑疲软，英国现在的出口额还远小于进口额。At some point, these deeper problems will surface. They hazard thehousing-fuelled recovery. For a start, Mr Graves’s argumentworks in both directions: the fair price for houses will fall wheninterest rates rise. The fact that Mark Carney, the Bank ofEngland’s governor, is widely expected to commit to keepinginterest rates low will provide some comfort. But the bank cannotcompletely control the interest rates that consumers pay. A low-rate future is hardly guaranteed, whatever Mr Carney promises.这些现在还隐藏在深层的问题迟早会浮出水面。它们会威胁由房市刺激的复苏。重要的是，格拉夫斯的理论在另一方面也成立：房屋的合理价值将在银行利率上涨时下跌。人们广泛认为英国央行行长马克?坎尼（MarkCarney）会致力于保持银行低利率，这一事实将让人们感到宽慰。但央行无法完全控制消费者所支付的利率。无论坎尼会答应些什么，未来的低利率都未必有保证。In economics the future is always murky, and it becomes murkierthe further forward you try to look. If they were not constrained bythe coalition agreement, the Conservatives might well think ofcalling an election in 2014. History provides a worrying precedentthat Mr Osborne will know well. If James Callaghan had called anelection in 1978, the Labour prime minister could have been re-elected. He waited, the economy tanked and Margaret Thatcherswept to power in 1979. The long wait until 2015 gives Britain’sdeeper problems more time to strangle its fragile recovery. MrOsborne will have to hope that the good news has not come toosoon.经济学说到将来的情况都很模糊，如果你试图看得更远，那就更模糊了。如果没有联合政府协议约束的话，保守党很可能会考虑在2014年举行大选。历史上曾经有过一个令人担心的先例，对此奥斯本一定知道得很清楚。如果詹姆斯?卡拉汉（James Callaghan）1 提前在1978年举行大选，这位工党前首相有可能再度当选。但他等到了1979年，结果经济突然垮了，而玛格丽特?撒切尔在那一年的选举中大获全胜。如果下次大选如期于2015年举行，英国的隐藏问题有了这样长的等待时间，就更有可能绞杀该国脆弱的复苏。奥斯本只有寄希望于好消息姗姗来迟。1. 伦纳德?詹姆斯?卡拉汉，KG，PC（Leonard James Callaghan,Baron Callaghan of Cardiff，日―日），英国工党政治家，1976年至1979年出任英国首相。“ 经济学人日刊 [] The Great Deceleration 金砖四国经济大减速The emerging-market slowdown is not the beginning of a bust.But it is a turning-point for the world economy新兴市场减速不是经济大萧条的起点，而是世界经济的转折点WHEN a champion sprinter falls short of his best speeds, it takes awhile to determine whether he is temporarily on poor form or haspermanently lost his edge. The same is true with emergingmarkets, the world economy's 21st-century sprinters. After adecade of surging growth, in which they led a global boom and thenhelped pull the world economy forwards in the face of the financialcrisis, the emerging giants have slowed sharply.如果一个冠军短跑选手跑不出自己的巅峰成绩，我们需要假以时日才能确定这到底是因为暂时的身体欠佳，还是因为永久的锋芒不再。新兴市场算得上21世纪世界经济短跑健将，所以它们的情况也是如此。十年以来，新型经济巨头一直保持高速增长：先是引领全球经济繁荣，后是顶住金融危机的压力拉着世界经济向前发展，但是如今，各大新兴经济体增速明显放缓。China will be lucky if it manages to hit its official target of 7.5%growth in 2013, a far cry from the double-digit rates that thecountry had come to expect in the 2000s. Growth in India (around5%), Brazil and Russia (around 2.5%) is barely half what it was atthe height of the boom. Collectively, emerging markets may (just)match last year's pace of 5%. That sounds fast compared with thesluggish rich world, but it is the slowest emerging-economyexpansion in a decade, barring 2009 when the rich world slumped.就2013年度，中国如果能设法达到官方设定的7.5%目标增速就万幸了，而这个增速比起年间中国预期实现的两位数增速，已经差得远了。如今，印度的增速为5%，巴西和俄罗斯的在2.5%左右，这勉强是它们各自巅峰时期的一半。新兴市场的总体增速可能刚刚和去年差不多，达到5%。比起滞慢的发达国家，这增速听起来已经很快了，但是这却是除去发达国家金融暴跌的2009年外，十年以来新兴经济体的最缓慢的扩张。This marks the end of the dramatic first phase of the emerging-包含各类专业文献、中学教育、高等教育、应用写作文书、幼儿教育、小学教育、外语学习资料、各类资格考试、12The Economist双语版201307等内容。　
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城市的复兴
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锡拉库扎，一个曾经与城市衰退同义的词，形式正逐渐好转。其中不少要归功于Destito先生和他的一美元房子。
Rick Destito knewexactly what he was getting into when he bought a rundown, three-storyVictorian house in one of the poorest neighborhoods of Syracuse. Built in the1890s but left abandoned for years, the place was in serious disrepair:graffiti and mold stained the exterior, the windows were gone and the roofneeded to be replaced. But under an innovative local housing program, he paidonly a dollar for the place — plus another $60,000, and his own skilled labor,to make it suitable for his family, including a one-year old girl and a baby onthe way. 当他在锡拉库扎最贫穷的街区之一买下一个破旧的三层维多利亚时代式的房子的时候，Rick Destito非常清楚他要面对的情况。建于1890年代，并遭到多年遗弃，这个房子严重失修：外墙上到处是涂鸦和霉菌，窗户没了，屋顶需要更新。但根据最新的当地住房规划工程，他只花了一美元就买下了这个地方。再花60,000美元，加上他自己娴熟的技术，就可以让这里成为他家庭（包括一个一岁的小女孩和一个未出生的孩子）的乐园。 For decades, peoplelike Mr. Destito — young, skilled, motivated — were exactly the sort who leftRust Belt cities like Syracuse. But recently, in numbers not yet statisticallymeasurable but clearly evident at the ground level, they’ve been coming back tothe city, first as a trickle, and now by the hundreds. In some ways it’s a partof the natural ebb and flow of urban demographics. But it is also the result ofa new attitude among the city’s leadership, one that admits the failure of there-industrialization efforts of the last decades and instead invents ways toattract new types of residents and keep current ones from leaving. Call iturban renewal 2.0, gentrification on a citywide scale. & 几十年来，Destito先生这样年轻，有技术和野心的人一定会离开像锡拉库扎这样的“铁锈”地带的。但最近，人们开始回到这些城市，开始还只是一小部分，现在已是成群结队了。虽然具体数目无法统计清楚，但很明显已渐成为一种新的趋势。某种程度上，这只是城市人口分布兴衰自然规律的一部分。但这也是城市领导新观念的结果，他们承认过去几十年来在重建工业化方向上努力的失败，转而采用其他途径来吸引新型居民并防止原有居民的流失。可以称之为复兴2.0，整个城市范围的士绅化。 &&Mr. Destito, forexample, grew up in nearby Rome, a small city at the foothills of theAdirondacks. He wanted a bigger city to settle in, so he traveled the countryfor three years, working in different places and observing what he foundappealing in each one — places like Nashville, Denver and Atlanta, many of them“bustling with activity where you could be alone or with people, hang out inparks, ride a bike, find an arts community,” he said. &&以Destito先生为例，他在罗马附近，阿迪朗达克山脉丘陵地带的一个小城市里长大。他希望到一个大些的城市定居，因此在全国漂泊了三年，在不同的地方工作并在每一处都寻找他认为有价值的东西。像纳什维尔、丹佛和亚特兰大这样的许多地方都“充满了活力，在这里，你可以独处，也可以跟人们聚在一起，在公园闲逛，骑自行车出行，或参加艺术社区，” 他说到。 &&Eventually, herealized, why not Syracuse? Its low cost of living would let him work less andenjoy life more. Most important, it offered the chance to make a visible impacton a community, something that would be much harder to do in a bustlingmetropolis. “I saw the potential, the opportunity to recreate some of what itonce had,” he said. “I saw interesting things happening and I wanted to be partof it.” &&最终，他意识到，为什么不去锡拉库扎呢？那里生活成本低，他不用那么拼命工作，可以更多的享受生活。最重要的是，在那里可以对社区有更可见的影响力，而这在繁华的大都市是非常困难的。“我看到了潜力，重建昔日辉煌的机会，”他说，“我看到了很多有意义的东西，我希望成为他们的一员。” Mr. Destito moved toSyracuse eight years ago. Before buying his current home, he bought andrenovated three two-family homes, one of which he still lives in while he workson the “dollar house.” Then, five years ago, he bought an old gear factory andbegan renting lofts to artists, musicians and entrepreneurs. “I didn’t realizethat a real arts community existed here,” he said. Destito先生八年前搬到了锡拉库扎。在买现在的房子之前，他购买和装修过三个双亲家庭的房子。在装修“一美元房子”的时候他仍住在其中一栋房子里。随后，五年前，他买了一个破旧的轴承厂并开始向艺术家、音乐家和企业者出租楼阁。“我并没意识到一个真正的艺术社区在这里形成了，”他说。 &&Indeed, all over townmany buildings of this vintage are being bought and renovated or restored. Eachtime one is visibly transformed, nearby residents, with new confidence in thefuture of their community, make their own improvements, creating zones ofimprovement amid the squalor. 事实上，这一时期镇上的许多建筑都被购买和重新整修或还原了。每当一处得到明显改观时，怀着对他们社区未来的新的信心，附近的居民就会做出他们自己的努力，在脏乱不堪的环境中创造出得到改观的地带。 Syracuse has beenparticularly attractive to people like Mr. Destito thanks to a forward-thinkingcoalition that includes Mayor Stephanie M Nancy Cantor, the chancellor andpresident of Syracuse U Joanie Mahoney, the executive of OnondagaC and a mix of neighborhood groups and business associations. Theuniversity has bought empty industrial buildings and renovated them, using someof the space for programs and renting out the rest. The city has createdneighborhood improvement projects, while the county has chipped in money toreinvest in downtown. 由于包括市长StephanieMiner、 锡拉库扎大学校长和主席Nancy Cantor、奥内达加县执行官JoanieMahoney以及一些邻近的组织和商业协会等一系列的高瞻远瞩，锡拉库扎对像Destito先生一样的人表现出了其特别的吸引力。大学购买了闲置的工业大楼并进行了整修，将其中的一些空间用于项目需要，并将其余租出去。城市已经创建了邻体改进工程，而县城拨出了专款用于商业区重投资。 These programs arepart of a network of coordinated efforts. One nonprofit group, HomeHeadquarters, the sponsor of the dollar house initiative, has programs toreoccupy vacant housing and repopulate neighborhoods. It holds classes for newhome owners and counsels potential foreclosure victims. It buys vacant homes,partially or fully renovates some of them for resale and dismantles others tosupply pieces for renovation efforts elsewhere. 这些项目是一系列整合工作的一部分。一美元房子活动的承办方，非盈利组织家庭总部(HomeHeadquarters)有一些项目用于回收闲置房子并让邻居住上人。它为新房产所有者提供课程，并为潜在止赎权受害者提供咨询服务。它收购闲置房子，并将其中一些房子进行部分或全部整修以便出售，而将其余拆除为其他地方的整修工作提供便利。 It’s a good but smallstart: Syracuse has 3,300 vacant parcels, 1,600 of which have structures onthem, a daunting number in a Rust Belt city that over the past 50 years haslost 36 percent of its population and much of its core industry. 这是好的开端，但还不够：锡拉库扎有3,300处闲置区，其中1,600处有废旧建筑。这对一个过去50年来失去了其36%人口和绝大部分核心工业的“铁锈”地带的城市来说是一个令人望而生畏的数字。 The near West Sideneighborhood that is home to Destito’s house is one of the poorest in the city,notes Karen Schroeder, Home Headquarters’ marketing and resource developmentmanager. “Some of the city’s oldest housing is here,” she said, but it “wasbuilt as workforce housing and never top quality.” In the early 1960s a highwaybuilt through the city cut it off from the heart of nearby downtown. Afterdecades of misfires, the organization’s efforts seem to be finally making adifference. 家庭总部的市场和资源发展经理KarenSchroeder解释说，Destito先生房子西侧邻近的地方是这个城市最穷的地方之一。她说“这个城市最老的一些房子就在这里”，但“是做为工薪阶层住房建筑的，绝不是高质量的房子。”在1960年代早期，一条穿过城市的高速公路将其与附近商业区的核心地段隔离开。 经过几十年的失败尝试后，组织的努力终于看起来有点作用了。
Syracuse’s populationinflow, as well as publicly supported commercial development, is reviving thecity’s urban core. Armory Square, a six-block area of railroad-era warehousesand small hotels that have been gradually renovated since the 1980s, isoverflowing with restaurants, local stores and offices. The lavish LandmarkTheater, built in the 1920s, has been restored. A former Dey Brothersdepartment store has been converted to apartments. 锡拉库扎的人口流入，连同公开支持的商业发展一起正使整个城市的市中心得到复苏。在Armory广场，跨越六个街区的铁路仓库和小旅店从1980年代以来逐渐得到整修。现在Armory广场充满了饭店、本地商店和办公室。始建于1920年代，豪华的Landmark剧院也得到了重新装修。前Dey兄弟百货商场已转变为豪华公寓。 Two of Mr. Destito’sfriends are now buying vacant houses to rehab. Some of the artists in the gearfactory are looking to settle nearby. A cabinet maker is opening a new businessnearby, as is a local ceramicist. “People are beginning to appreciate what’shappening and new people are coming in,” he said. Syracuse, a city oncesynonymous with urban decay, might well be on the mend — thanks in no smallpart to Mr. Destito and his one-dollar house. Destito先生的两个朋友也在买闲置房用于重新装修。轴承厂的一些艺术家也寻求在附近定居下来。一个家具制造商计划仿照当地一个陶瓷商，在附近开一家新的工厂。他说“人们开始意识到正在发生的转变，新的人群在涌入”。 锡拉库扎，一个曾经与城市衰退同义的词，正逐渐好转。其中不少要归功于Destito先生和他的一美元房子。 Roberta Brandes Gratzis an urban critic and author of “The Battle for Gotham: New York in the Shadowof Robert Moses and Jane Jacobs.” Roberta Brandes Gratz是城市问题评论家和”Gotham的战争：罗伯特·摩西斯和简·雅各布斯阴影之下的纽约”的作者。
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