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Foreign Direct Investment
Global Developments
After three consecutive years of declinc, outflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) from OECD countries rose 3.7 per cent in 2004 to￡538 billion. Despite this return to growth, the figure still represents only 40 per cent of the all time peak in OECD FDI outflows of ￡1340 billion in 2000. This rebound in FDI flows came at a time of stronger economic growth, as the global economy grew four per cent in 2004.
As one would expect from relatively rich developed economies, the OECD is a net investor in the rest of the world.The net outflow, the amount by which outflows exceed inflows, has generally been quite small comopared to total OECD outflows , illustrating that the majority of OECD FDI outflows are destined for other developed OECD countries. However this net outflow has been rising sharply in recent years, at a time when overall FDI flows were declining, and reached a record high of billion in 2004, indicating that developing countries are rapidly gaining a larger share of global FDI flows. In 2004 OECD net outflows amounted to 39 per cent of total OECD outflows, a significant increase from 15 per cent in 1999.
The USA is both the largest foreign investing country and the largest recipient of FDI in the world ,with outflows of ￡203 billion and inflows of ￡86 billion in 2004.
Inward FDI into China keeps hitting new records, reaching over ￡44 billion in 2004, up from ￡42 billion in 2003. Direct investment into Hong Kong, some of which is ultimately destined for mainland China, was over ￡27 billion in 2004. These inflows are helping to fuel the contiuning economic boom in China, leading to continued concerns that the economy may be overheating. According to the OECD, much of the OECD FDI into China is aimed at setting up production facilities to service the local market, and not just at off-shoring production from hign-cost OECD countries.
The Central and Eastern Europe countries (CEECs) experienced significant inflows of FDI over the last decade.The cumulative stock of FDI in the CEECs rose almost tenfold from 1994 to 2003 to ￡175 billion , while inflows in 2004 alone reached ￡20 billion. FDI stocks as a percentage of GDP rose in the same period from seven per cent to 33 per cent. It is estimated that over the last decade, FDI has contributed, on an annual basis, two thirds of average annual regional growth of 3.5 per cent. FDI into Russia has contiuned to recover strongly, at ￡9 billion in 2004, with the energy sector being the main attraction for foreign investment.
A growing feature of global FDI flows in recent years has been the emergence of Research and Development (R＆D) as a driver of multinationals’ investment decisions. Traditionally R＆D , which requires close collaboration and exhibits cluster effects, was among the least internationalized segments of multinationals’ functions such as production and marketing were moved abroad more quickly. However, multinationals are increasingly conducting their R＆D operations outside their home economies, as they search for both the best scientific talent and lower costs. Multinationals are conservatively estimated to account for at least two thirds of global business expenditure R＆D (BERD) spending, which totaled ￡362 billion in 2002. The foreign affiliates of multinationals account for an increasing share of global BERD expenditure ,rising from 10 per cent in 1993 to 16 per cent in 2002. According to NCTAD foreign multinationals accounted for over 70 per cent of BERD expenditure in Ireland in 2003, which was the highest share in the world, suggesting that Ireland is an attractive location for R＆D-related FDI.
The outsourcing R＆D has not been just been confined to developed countries?----developing countries such as China and India are capturing more and more R＆D -related FDI inflows. The stock of such FDI reached ￡3.2 billion in China in mid-2004.The ralative abundance of qualified scientists and engineers, quality educational institutes, government incentives and of course lower costs contribute to both these countries being seen by multinationals as among the most attractive prospective R＆D locations in the world, with China ranked first and India in third place.
Irish FDI Inflows
CSO data shows that direct investment into Ireland declined significantly in the three years to 2004, with the 2004 infow of ￡9.1 billion standing at less than half the inflow for 2003 and less than one third of the record inflow of ￡31.2 billion achieved in 2002.
The relevance of FDI statistics as they are currently measured is debatable and must be treated with caution. FDI flows are volatile and changes in each category result as much from the internal financial transactions that take place within firms as from actual physical investments in new production facilities. These flows often have little relationship to the original concept of FDI as a direct “one-to-one” greenfield investment.
The contribution of FDI to the Irish economy can be measured by criteria other than net inflows. In 2004 the number of new projects announced by IDA Ireland supported companies rose by 10 per cent, while the number of new jobs created rose by 18 per cent on 2003. The net level of employment in IDA Ireland backed companies rose slightly also. Increasingly it is the quslity rather than the quantity of new jobs that matters. Reflecting this, over 48% (40% in 2003) of the new jobs in IDA Ireland supported projects announced in 2004 will pay salaries in excess of ￡37000 when the projects become operational, compared to the average industrial wage of around ￡30000 (Dec 2004).
In line with international methodology, FDI is classified under three categories, namely equity, reinvested earnings and other capital.
There was a negative flow of 7.2 billion in the equity category in 2004, indicating that transfers by Irish-based foreign owned companies to their parent companies outweighed equity investment flows into Ireland.
Reinvested profits of foreign-owned companies into their Irish operations, which have generally been rising over recent years both in absolute terms and a percentage of overall FDI, fell 43 per cent to ￡9.1 billion in 2004. Much of this drop can be attributed to particularly large dividend payments by multinationals in 2004 . Changes in US tax law are also expected to reduce FDI inflow from retained earnings even futher. The Job Creation Act in October 2004 affored American companies the opportunity to repatriate profits earned by their foreign affiliates at a special tax rate of 5.5 per cent instead of the nomal rate of 35 per cent. This tax window lasts for one financial year and its effects on reinvested earnings are likely to continue throughout both 2005 and 2006. However this tax break is not expected to have any bearing on investment decisions by US multinaionals in Ireland.
The “other capital” category contains,among other items, interaffiliate financial thansactions and it is usually through this category that financing for greenfield investmentd are channeled. Inward flows of other capital rose from ￡798 million in 2003 to ￡7.2 billion in 2004.
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