Singapore 4Q11 Report Card
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05 March 2012 Asia Pacific/Singapore Equity Research Strategy
Singapore 4Q11 Report Card
Research Analysts Tricia Song 65
tricia.song@ Kwee Hong Ching 65
kweehong.ching@ Singapore Research Analyst Team Sakthi Siva (Strategy) 65
Tricia Song (Property - Developers) 65
Anand Swaminathan (Banks) 65
Su Tye Chua (Media, Small-Mid-Caps) 65
Gerald Wong (Capital Goods) 65
Yvonne Voon (Property - REITs) 65
Timothy Ross (Transportation) 65
Annuar Aziz (Transportation) 603
Chate Benchavitvilai (Telecom Services) 852
Ting Min Tan (Agricultural Products & Agribusiness) 603
Arjan van Veen (Diversified Financials) 852
Frances Feng (Insurance) 852
Foong Wai Loke (Casinos & Gaming) 603
Paworamon (Poom) Suvarnatemee (Metals & Mining) 662 614 6210 Kun Lung Wu (Economics) 65
Kwee Hong Ching (Strategy) 65
Christopher Chang 65
Sing Ping Chok 65
Plenty of surprises
Note: The size of the face reflects the results trend (%): = in line (37%),
= above expectations (29%),
= below expectations (34%). Source: Credit Suisse estimates
■ 20 negative versus 17 positive surprises. While disappointments (20) continued to outweigh positive surprises (17) in 4QCY11, we note: (1) the rate of YoY decline for earnings has slowed down to -0.5% from -19% in 3QCY11; (2) net margins have improved sequentially to 9.7% from 7.2% in 3QCY11. Post-results, we have reduced our FY12E and FY13E market earnings by 4.8% and 4.9%, raised our FY12 earnings estimates for 13 companies and reduced our forecasts for 35. We now expect earnings growth (MSCI names) of -7% in FY12 and +11% in FY13. ■ Margins i surprise bumper dividends for developers. In general, O&M, office REITs and construction surprised positively, telcos and REITs showed in-line results, and some property, transport, agribusiness disappointed. While net profits were flat YoY, they jumped 36% QoQ on flat revenues, partly due to (1) more backloaded earnings such as divestment and revaluation gains for property developers, (2) and benign marked-to-market (MTM) losses on investments and forex losses (translation and realised) given less volatile equity and currency markets in 4Q11 compared to 3Q11. While total dividends announced for those with FYE Dec were flat YoY, we note bumper dividends and higher payout ratios for real estate developers. ■ Upgraded STI year-end target to 3,400, representing 13% upside. While cyclicals have outperformed defensives by 18%, correlation with US ISM (a proxy for global growth) suggests more upside. Top picks : Olam and Noble P/B are the closest to 2008-09 lows while Keppel and SCI are trading at discounts on our P/B versus ROE valuation model. Click here for Sakthi’s latest Singapore market strategy report. ■ Credit Suisse has decided to not enter into business relationships with producers of anti-personnel mines and cluster munitions. For Credit Suisse's position on the issue, please see: /responsibility/doc/cs_position_en.pdf. &
DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. FOR OTHER IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, visit www./ researchdisclosures or call +1 (877) 291-2683. U.S. Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
05 March 2012
Focus chart and table
Figure 1: Credit Suisse coverage stocks―quarterly net margins (%)
(%) 16 14 12 10 8 6
14.7 12.4 12.8 11.2 11.6 10.6 9.4 8.2 7.2 9.2 9.4 10.2 9.8 10.8 11.0 11.0 9.1 9.0 9.7
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse
Figure 2: Reported company results―with positive surprises
Credit Suisse net profit (S$ mn) Date of Market cap FY1 % Pre Post 999 1,153 37 749 214 518 125 273 80 201 596 189 95 68 198 41 800 224 534 127 276 80 201 595 187 94 67 186 chg. 15.4 11.3 6.7 4.6 3.0 1.5 1.4 0.8 0.0 (0.3) (1.2) (1.6) (1.8) (5.7) Pre Post 840 48 760 227 542 138 281 80 282 669 195 75 70 196 859 53 788 231 559 139 291 80 282 687 191 74 69 182 FY2 % chg. 2.3 10.1 3.7 1.5 3.1 0.8 3.6 0.0 0.0 2.8 (1.9) (1.3) (1.9) (7.2) Pre Post 964 1,062 37 749 192 540 124 267 89 234 653 75 89 65 164 36 753 195 560 127 271 88 227 649 73 85 66 177 Consensus net profit (S$ mn) FY1 % chg. 10.1 (1.9) 0.5 1.4 3.7 2.2 1.2 (1.6) (3.1) (0.7) (2.2) (4.6) 1.9 8.0 Pre Post 886 47 809 195 578 135 273 98 300 711 110 97 71 164 945 50 816 196 586 136 276 97 296 711 119 89 71 171 FY2 % chg. Pre Post Pre Post N N N N O O U N N U N N O O U O N O U Target price Rating
Bberg SOH SP TAT SP SCI SP CCT SP STE SP MINT SP HLF SP DBS SP SAR SP YZJ SP CIT SP
Year end Type results (S$ mn) 4Q 3Q 4Q 4Q 4Q 3Q 3Q 4Q 4Q 4Q 4Q 4Q 4Q 4Q 4Q 4Q 4Q Feb-14 Feb-14 Feb-27 Jan-20 Feb-23 Jan-26 Jan-17 Feb-28 Feb-10 Feb-14 Feb-29 Feb-29 Feb-20 Jan-17 Feb-22 Feb-29 Jan-19 1,953 432 9,543 3,417 9,696 1,889 4,295 1,084 2,990 10,002 2,348 1,205 320 2,745
STX OSV (NKr) Dec Tat Hong SCI CCT STE MINT HLF DBS Sakari (US$) YZJ (Rmb) CDL Mar Dec Dec Dec Mar Mar Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec
6.7 1.30 1.50 4.8 0.75 0.90
0.8 4.90 5.50 O 0.4 1.33 1.38 O 1.4 2.63 2.68 0.6 1.22 1.22 0.8 2.01 2.02 (1.0) 2.20 2.20 0.8 14.20 14.90 (1.4) 2.50 2.50 U N N U N N
AREIT SP A-REIT
34,249 2,919 2,926 5,058 3,674 3,674 30,570 2,216 2,209
0.3 3,438 3,270 0.0 3,305 3,305 (0.3) 2,577 2,508
(4.9) 2,915 2,956 0.0 3,431 3,446 (2.7) 2,277 2,317
1.4 3,244 3,271 0.4 3,002 3,026 1.7 2,490 2,548
0.8 1.30 1.30 O 0.1 12.33 12.65 O 2.3 8.90 9.00 (8.4) 1.40 1.40 4.2 1.10 1.15 U N U 8.5 1.16 1.16 O (0.2) 0.50 0.50 O
OCBC SP OCBC KREIT SP KREIT HYF SP YNH SP SUN SP Hyflux Yongnam SUNT
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
Singapore 4Q11 Report Card
05 March 2012
Improving sequential margins
All stocks under Credit Suisse’s Singapore coverage have reported 4Q CY11 results, with more disappointments (20) than positive surprises (17). The remaining 22 results were in line. Figure 12 provides details of these positive and negative surprises in the current reporting season. The 20 disappointments include Amtek, Biosensors, CapitaLand, CMA, COSCO, GE, Hi-P, Mewah, Midas, Noble, NOL, RLS, SGX, SingTel, SMRT, Tiger, UOB, Venture, Wilmar, Wing Tai. The 17 positive surprises are A-REIT, CCT, CDL, DBS, HLF, Hyflux, KREIT, MINT, OCBC, Sakari, SCI, STE, STX OSV, SUNT, Tat Hong, Yongnam, and Yangzijiang. 20 disappointments versus 17 positive surprises
4Q11 net profit flat yoy but +36% qoq
4Q11 net profit was flattish YoY, despite a 12% YoY jump in revenues on narrowing net margin from 11% in 4Q10 to 9.7%. However, while revenues were flat QoQ, 4Q11 earnings jumped 36% QoQ as net margins improved sequentially to 9.7% from 7.2% in 3Q11. The sequential profit jump despite flat revenues was partly due to (1) more backloaded earnings such as divestment and revaluation gains for property developers, (2) and benign marked-to-market (MTM) losses on investments and forex losses (translation and realised) given less volatile equity and currency markets in 4Q11 compared to 3Q11. Specifically, based on the companies that disclose staff costs separately, wage costs have continued to rise 7% YoY and 2% QoQ in 4Q11, in view of the tight labour market in Singapore. Wage cost as a percentage of revenues at 14% in 4Q CY11 was lower than 3Q CY11’s 14.5%.
Figure 3: CS coverage stocks―quarterly earnings versus revenues
4Q11 net profit jumped 36% sequentially despite flat revenues on (1) (2) less MTM equity and currency losses versus 3Q11
Figure 4: CS coverage stocks―quarterly net margins (%)
Earnings (S$ mn) 8,500 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000
Revenue (S$ mn) 90,000 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000
(%) 15.4 16 14 12 10 8 6
14.7 12.8 12.4 11.2 10.6 9.4 8.2 7.2 9.2 9.4 11.6 10.2 9.8 9.1 9.0 11.011.0 10.8 9.7
CY4Q07 CY1Q08 CY2Q08 CY3Q08 CY4Q08 CY1Q09 CY2Q09 CY3Q09 CY4Q09 CY1Q10 CY2Q10 CY3Q10 CY4Q10 CY1Q11 CY2Q11 CY3Q11 CY4Q11
Earnings (S$ mn)
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse
Revenue (S$ mn)
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse
Singapore 4Q11 Report Card
CY4Q06 CY1Q07 CY2Q07 CY3Q07 CY4Q07 CY1Q08 CY2Q08 CY3Q08 CY4Q08 CY1Q09 CY2Q09 CY3Q09 CY4Q09 CY1Q10 CY2Q10 CY3Q10 CY4Q10 CY1Q11 CY2Q11 CY3Q11 CY4Q11
05 March 2012
Figure 5: Quarterly staff costs
Figure 6: Quarterly staff costs versus revenue
Staff costs (S$ mn) 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500
YoY (%) 18 12 6 0 -6 -12 -18
Staff costs / revenue (%) 16.5 16.1 16.0 15.5 15.0 14.5 14.0 13.5 13.0 12.5
15.2 15.3 15.0 14.2 14.4 14.4 14.1 14.2 14.5 14.1 14.5 13.8 13.4 14.0
13.8 13.7 13.5
CY1Q07 CY2Q07 CY3Q07 CY4Q07 CY1Q08 CY2Q08 CY3Q08 CY4Q08 CY1Q09 CY2Q09 CY3Q09 CY4Q09 CY1Q10 CY2Q10 CY3Q10 CY4Q10 CY1Q11 CY2Q11 CY3Q11 CY4Q11
Staff costs (S$ mn)
Source: Bloomberg, Company data
Source: Company data, Credit Suisse
Bumper dividends at property, selected O&M names
For those reporting their full-year ended December 2011 results, 71% of the companies raised their dividends and/or payout ratios, especially the property developers. REITs and selected O&M names dished out higher dividends due to better performances.
Singapore 4Q11 Report Card
CY1Q07 CY2Q07 CY3Q07 CY4Q07 CY1Q08 CY2Q08 CY3Q08 CY4Q08 CY1Q09 CY2Q09 CY3Q09 CY4Q09 CY1Q10 CY2Q10 CY3Q10 CY4Q10 CY1Q11 CY2Q11 CY3Q11 CY4Q11
05 March 2012
Figure 7: Dividends for companies with December year end
DPS (S cents) Bloomberg SOH SP OUE SP SAR SP YNH SP CMA SP CAPL SP YZJ SP ARA SP ART SP KEP SP KREIT SP KPLD SP WIL SP CD SP CDREIT SP STE SP SUN SP CT SP MII SP GENS SP IFAR SP RFMD SP DBS SP OCBC SP HLF SP CIT SP VMS SP SCI SP STH SP MIDAS SP CCT SP UOB SP M1 SP HLA SP COS SP SMM SP HIP SP HYF SP NOBL SP GE SP NOL SP Stock STX OSV OUE Sakari Yongnam CMA CapitaLand YZJ ARA ART Keppel KREIT KepLand Wilmar CD CDLHT STE SUNT CMT Mewah GENS IFAR Raffles Med DBS OCBC HLF CDL Venture SCI StarHub Midas CCT UOB M1 HLA COSCO SMM Hi-P Hyflux Noble GE* NOL Total (S$ mn) 10cts and Final 27cts Source: Company data. FY 13.00 10.07 US cts 1.00 3.00 8.00 5.50 5.00 8.54 43.00 7.08 20.00 6.10 6.00 11.05 15.50 9.93 9.37 0.85 1.00 0.30 3.50 56.00 30.00 12.00 18.00 55.00 17.00 20.00 1.00 7.52 60.00 14.50 8.00 3.00 25.00 2.40 2.77 1.65 US cts 37.00 0.00 9,965 FY 4.00 4.68 US cts 0.65 2.00 6.00 4.50 4.36 7.54 38.18 6.37 18.00 5.50 5.50 10.21 14.55 9.61 9.24 3.50 56.00 30.00 12.00 18.00 55.00 17.00 20.00 1.00 7.83 70.00 17.50 10.00 4.00 36.00 3.60 4.17 2.50 US cts 87.00 4.60 10,006 YoY (%) 400.0 225.0 115.2 53.8 50.0 33.3 22.2 14.6 13.3 12.6 11.1 11.1 10.9 9.1 8.2 6.5 3.4 1.4 + + + -4.0 -14.3 -17.1 -20.0 -25.0 -30.6 -33.3 -33.5 -34.0 -57.5 -0.4
Note GE’s dividend in FY10 includes interim of 10cts, 77cts
while FY11 includes interim
Singapore 4Q11 Report Card
05 March 2012
We still prefer cyclicals
Upgrading our STI (Straits Times Index) year-end target to 3,400. Following our upgrade to our MXASJ (MSCI Asia ex-Japan) target to 600 on 1 Mar, Sakthi Siva, our regional strategist has upgraded our STI target to 3,400 (from 3038 previously). This suggests potential upside of 13%. We do note that even with this 13% upside, price-tobook for Singapore rises from the current 1.49x to 1.68x versus its historical average of 1.75x since 2000. We continue to favour cyclicals over defensives. While we could see some near-term profit taking as cyclicals have outperformed defensives by 18% since the lows of 30 September 2011, we believe valuations and potential further upside in the US ISM (our proxy for global growth) still favours cyclicals over defensives. Olam, Noble, STX OSV, Keppel and Sembcorp Industries (SCI) look undervalued. While undervalued stocks may be undervalued because of rather poor fundamentals, among cyclicals Olam and Noble price-to-book are the closest to 2008-09 lows, while STX OSV, Keppel and SCI are trading on discounts on our price-to-book versus ROE valuation model. Click here for Sakthi’s latest Singapore market strategy report.
Figure 8: Singapore Cyclicals/ Defensives relative price performance vs US ISM
140 130 70
Upgraded STI target to 3,400, 13% upside
Cyclicals have outperformed defensives by 18%, but correlation with US ISM suggests more upside
Cyclicals/ Defensives
50 100 90 80 70 Jun-04 18% outperformance from lows on 30 Sep 2011 40
30 Jun-06 Jun-08 Singapore Cyclicals/ Defensives Jun-10 US ISM
Source: MSCI, Datastream, ISM, Credit Suisse estimates
Sectoral commentaries and outlook
Banks. 4Q11 results were a mixed bag, with the headline numbers masking the not-sostrong underlying performance. The key takeaway from 4Q11 results was that NPLs have bottomed in this cycle and credit cost normalisation is in process. A sustainable NIM recovery from current historical lows remains uncertain―banks appear to be happy to see NIMs remain flat in FY12. All three banks continue to focus on improving their stretched USD liquidity positions. As highlighted in our report, NIMs versus credit costs: A ‘surprise’ analysis, 19 January 2012, our base-case scenario for 2012E is for NIMs to be flat from 4Q11 levels (down in 1H12E and up in 2H12E) and credit costs up only marginally YoY. In our view, the more probable scenarios of a negative credit cost surprise offsetting a positive NIM surprise (given a slowing economy and above-normal loan growth in the past two years) could result in as much as a 5-17% negative earnings surprise, with OCBC most at risk. We maintain our UNDERWEIGHT stance on Singapore banks in the current deteriorating macro environment, with imminent downside risks to earnings from volatile capital markets and a deteriorating credit environment. Valuations continue to appear cheap, but we are unlikely to see a sustainable re-rating as long as earnings risks remain. We recently upgraded UOB to NEUTRAL (from Underperform), increasing our 12-month
Underweight Banks, prefer UOB to DBS to OCBC.
Singapore 4Q11 Report Card
05 March 2012
target price to S$20.00 (from S$17.70). UOB is now our top pick in the sector as European debt overhang has been addressed and near-term operational momentum (especially NIMs) could outperform - DBS appears a crowded trade with most investors relatively overweight the stock. Real estate. Developers with China operations generally reported disappointing residential sales or higher operating expenses, augmented by stronger domestic operations and/or opportunistic divestments. We note most developers (compliant with FRS40 accounting rule) are still reporting revaluation gains for selected commercial properties, albeit the gains have declined from FY10, signaling a rather resilient physical market. Despite consensus generally still negative on policy overhang and macro slowdown, our contrarian view of a more resilient physical market is panning out and these stocks have rebounded the most YTD. We believe 2.5 years of disconnect with physical market still renders them undervalued. CapitaLand is our sector top pick. Catalysts are (1) a re-rating of CMA (27% of its assets), (2) rebound in sentiments towards China property (38%), (3) improved capital management, (4) the cheapest big cap developer at 0.88x P/B, 0.69x P/RNAV. We also like CDL for its structural ROE growth and excellent execution through tough times, valuations are still undemanding at a 25% discount to RNAV and 1.5x P/B vs 2.0x historical average and 12% ROE. Oveweight property developers, top picks CapitaLand for valuations and CDL for execution
S-REITs 4Q11 results season was mostly in line, but office REITs' FY11 results beat
expectations by about 3-5%. We expect cash calls to be a key theme this year, driven by acquisitions and paring down debt. This presents trading opportunities for stocks like MCT (we believe MBC injection could take place in 2Q12). S-REITs have lagged the YTD rally despite stronger fundamentals and valuations are attractive, with yield spread close to a two-year high. Attractive yields limit downside risk.Top picks: CMT for resilience, CCT and CDLHT for beta leverage (both office and hotel sectors are highly correlated to GDP and we believe that non-biomed GDP has bottomed in 4Q11).
S-REITs have been laggards, go for beta : CCT and CDLHT, go for resilience: CMT
Capital goods showed positive results with Keppel Corp, STX OSV and Yangzijiang
above expectations due to higher margins from execution of orders signed in 2007/08. We expect margins to moderate in FY12 as earnings from contracts secured post 2009 are recognised. In our view, improving sector fundamentals and easing credit conditions should drive recovery in orders. Within O&M we prefer Keppel and SCI over SMM. Between the Chinese shipbuilders we prefer YZJ over Cosco Corp. Agribusiness: In the context of a challenging trading backdrop, with the larger commodity trading houses reporting sharp falls in (agriculture segment) trading/marketing profits during the Dec-11 quarter, both Olam and Noble performed well. We expect a stronger 2012 for both, with a superior risk-reward given their price-to-book are the closest to 200809 lows. While Wilmar’s 4Q11 earnings have disappointed, we maintain OUTPERFORM as 1) the bulk of the bad
2) The long-term agri-related growth
3) forward P/E and its share price is close to its 32-month lows (ignoring the correction in October 2011 where the entire region fell). Transport: The performance of the land transport operators were underpinned by strong bus and rail ridership in Singapore, although earnings were moderated by higher fuel costs, with both CD and SMRT reporting losses for their bus operations. Their taxi operations saw improvement in profitability, on the back of strong underlying demand. We continue to favour CD, given its strong overseas growth profile at 42% of revenue and 46% of operating profit, and see it better leveraged towards firm underlying taxi demand in Singapore, driven by higher cashless transactions and call booking volumes. CD’s valuations are at a 20% discount to SMRT. Telcos: Overall 4Q11 results were broadly in-line with expectation, with future growth depending on (1) NGNBN progress (expect 2H12E) and (2) structural change in mobile data tariff and/or amount of data bundled (possibly in FY13E). Top pick of the sector remains SingTel. Despite relatively weak overseas associate contributions in 4Q11, we maintain our positive view on SingTel’s regional associates. We believe the competitive
Market weight Capital Goods: Prefer Keppel, SCI to SMM, prefer YZJ to Cosco
Olam, Noble P/B close to 08/09 Wilmar forward P/B and share price close to 32-month lows
Prefer CD to SMRT
Prefer Singtel to M1 and Starhub
Singapore 4Q11 Report Card
05 March 2012
environment in Indonesia has stabilised and can improve from here. In India, we continue to expect an improvement in operating results into FY3/13E from weak FY3/12E, as operating leverage turns in its favour. Longer term, we also note that most of SingTel’s key regional mobile associates (Telkomsel, Bharti, AIS, and Globe) are well positioned for smartphone and data-driven growth in their respective markets due to their strong market positions, networks and brandings. We expect to see QoQ improvement in contribution from associates from 4Q3/12E.
FY12E earnings revised down by 4.8%
Since the current results season kicked off on 10 January, we have revised down our FY12 and FY13 earnings estimates (for the CS Singapore coverage universe) by 4.8% and 4.9%, respectively. We have raised our FY11 earnings estimates for 13 companies and cut our forecasts for 35 companies. The biggest downgrades to FY12E earnings were in transport (-17%), real estate (-15%), agribusiness (-13%) and gaming (-9%). For real estate, the bulk of the downgrade came mainly from CapitaLand and KepLand taking into account even slower China and Singapore residential sales. The cuts in agribusiness were mainly for Wilmar and Mewah, which reported hugely disappointing results. Upgrades are from construction (+2%) and capital goods (+1%). Biggest FY12E and FY13E downgrades from transport, real estate, agribusiness and gaming, while upgrades from construction and capital goods
FY13E earnings revised down by 4.9% so far
The biggest downgrades to FY13E earnings were in real estate (-13%), agribusiness (11%) and transport (-9%). Upgrades are from construction (+2%) and capital goods (+1%).
Figure 9: Earnings estimate revisions by sector since the start of the 4Q11 results season
(%) Credit Suisse coverage Construction Capital goods Banks Media S-REITs Technology Diversified financials Telecom Insurance Small-/mid-caps Casinos & gaming Agribusiness / commodity Property Transport Total Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Earnings revisions since results FY12E 2.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 (0.2) (0.3) (2.3) (4.0) (4.5) (7.6) (8.7) (13.2) (14.9) (16.6) (4.8) FY13E 1.8 1.4 (3.0) 0.0 (0.6) (2.3) (2.9) (3.8) (5.7) (7.8) (7.1) (10.9) (12.7) (8.5) (4.9) Contribution FY12E 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.6) (0.1) (0.1) (0.4) (2.0) (1.1) (0.8) (4.8) FY13E 0.0 0.2 (0.8) 0.0 (0.0) (0.0) (0.0) (0.5) (0.1) (0.1) (0.3) (1.7) (1.0) (0.5) (4.9)
Singapore 4Q11 Report Card
05 March 2012
Figure 10: Latest earnings growth projection, by sector (CS coverage)
(S$ mn) Construction Insurance Transport Technology Small-/mid-caps Casinos & Gaming Agribusiness / Commodity Media Telecom S-REITs Diversified financials Banks Capital goods Property Total (CS Singapore) CY10A 206.0 507.2 2,526.9 301.7 174.5 659.2 3,404.6 457.1 4,266.8 1,584.3 428.9 7,376.1 4,040.8 4,094.1 30,028 CY11E 127 386 1,145 262 217 1,014 3,497 398 4,135 1,846 402 7,495 5,010 3,964 29,899 YoY (%) (38.5) (24.0) (54.7) (13.1) 24.4 53.9 2.7 (12.8) (3.1) 16.5 (6.4) 1.6 24.0 (3.2) (1.1) CY12E 196 545 1,555 325 255 1,158 3,923 429 4,369 1,901 409 7,477 4,941 1,883 29,366 YoY (%) 55.0 41.3 35.8 24.0 17.7 14.2 12.2 7.6 5.6 3.0 1.8 (0.2) (1.4) (52.5) (1.8) CY13E 220 613 2,475 370 317 1,354 4,745 447 4,727 1,954 465 8,408 4,464 2,234 32,793 YoY (%) 12.2 12.4 59.1 13.7 24.1 17.0 21.0 4.2 8.2 2.8 13.7 12.5 (9.6) 18.6 11.7
*For property, historical earnings took into account revaluation gains/losses, while forecasts do not. Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates.
Expecting -7% profit growth in FY12 and +11% in FY13
For the MSCI Singapore stocks under our coverage, we expect earnings growth of -7% in FY12 and +11% in FY13.
Figure 11: Contribution to market earnings growth, by sector (pp)
Telecom services Transportation Capital goods Diversified financials Banks Consumer Real estate MSCI Sing. earnings growth Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates FY12E (%) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.1 (0.0) (1.5) (6.9) (6.6) FY13E (%) 1.0 1.7 (0.6) 0.3 4.2 2.6 1.2 10.5
For MSCI Singapore, we are now expecting -7% EPS growth in FY12 and +11% in FY13
Singapore 4Q11 Report Card
Singapore 4Q11 Report Card
Figure 12: Reported company results
Bloomberg Company HIP SP SOH SP TAT SP SMM SP SCI SP CCT SP STE SP MINT SP AREIT SP HLA SP HLF SP UOB SP DBS SP SPH SP STH SP MLT SP MCT SP SAR SP ARA SP NOL SP WINGT SP OLAM SP YZJ SP IFAR SP ART SP CIT SP CDREIT SP FCT SP OCBC SP OUE SP NOBL SP VMS SP KREIT SP SATS SP HYF SP YNH SP RFMD SP CT SP M1 SP BIG SP Hi-P STX OSV (NKr) Tat Hong SMM SCI CCT STE MINT A-REIT HLA HLF UOB DBS SPH StarHub MLT MCT Sakari (US$) ARA NOL (US$) Wing Tai Olam YZJ (Rmb) IFAR (Rp bn) ART CDL CDLHT FCT OCBC OUE Noble (US$) Venture KREIT SATS Hyflux Yongnam Raffles Med CMT M1 Biosensors (US$) Date Yearof end Period results Dec Dec Mar Dec Dec Dec Dec Mar Mar Dec Dec Dec Dec Aug Dec Mar Mar Dec Dec Dec Jun Jun Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Sep Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Mar Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Mar 4Q 4Q 3Q 4Q 4Q 4Q 4Q 3Q 3Q 4Q 4Q 4Q 4Q 1Q 4Q 3Q 3Q 4Q 4Q 4Q 2Q 2Q 4Q 4Q 4Q 4Q 4Q 1Q 4Q 4Q 4Q 4Q 4Q 3Q 4Q 4Q 4Q 4Q 4Q 3Q Feb-23 Feb-14 Feb-14 Feb-23 Feb-27 Jan-20 Feb-23 Jan-26 Jan-17 Feb-29 Feb-28 Feb-23 Feb-10 Jan-10 Feb-02 Jan-19 Jan-31 Feb-14 Feb-21 Feb-22 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-29 Feb-29 Jan-19 Feb-29 Jan-30 Jan-18 Feb-20 Feb-21 Feb-28 Feb-24 Jan-17 Feb-07 Feb-22 Feb-29 Feb-20 Jan-18 Jan-16 Feb-08 Market cap (S$ mn) 753 1,953 432 11,165 9,543 3,417 9,696 1,889 4,295 740 1,084 28,413 34,249 6,013 4,969 2,232 1,614 2,990 1,064 3,604 994 5,740 5,058 2,295 1,212 10,002 1,655 1,246 30,570 2,266 9,040 2,280 2,348 2,692 1,205 320 1,251 6,076 2,238 2,450 Pre 60 999 37 639 749 214 518 125 273 85 80 2,411 2,919 430 329 163 102 201 66 89 159 472 3,674 1,385 93 596 123 74 2,216 125 625 188 189 170 95 68 59 333 174 108 Credit Suisse net profit (S$ mn) FY1 FY2 Post % chg. Pre Post 70 1,153 41 693 800 224 534 127 276 86 80 2,424 2,926 430 329 163 102 201 66 89 159 472 3,674 1,407 93 595 123 74 2,209 124 621 187 187 168 94 67 57 323 168 105 15.4 15.4 11.3 8.5 6.7 4.6 3.0 1.5 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 (0.1) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) (0.6) (1.0) (1.2) (1.2) (1.6) (1.8) (2.0) (2.9) (3.3) (3.6) 79 840 48 632 760 227 542 138 281 91 80 2,775 3,438 440 364 163 111 282 74 287 156 602 3,305 1,418 93 669 126 78 2,577 135 835 210 195 193 75 70 67 365 185 173 80 859 53 647 788 231 559 139 291 94 80 2,748 3,270 440 364 163 111 282 74 287 156 602 3,305 1,455 93 687 126 78 2,508 134 796 209 191 193 74 69 67 357 177 158 % chg. 0.9 2.3 10.1 2.3 3.7 1.5 3.1 0.8 3.6 3.7 0.0 (1.0) (4.9) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 (0.5) 2.8 (0.2) (0.3) (2.7) (0.5) (4.6) (0.5) (1.9) (0.1) (1.3) (1.9) 0.1 (2.4) (4.0) (8.8) Pre 71 964 37 666 749 192 540 124 267 89 89 2,384 2,915 398 319 168 102 234 73 (85) 159 414 3,431 1,566 78 653 104 72 2,277 131 684 179 75 175 89 65 58 310 176 108 Consensus net profit (S$ mn) FY1 FY2 Post % chg. Pre Post 73 1,062 36 677 753 195 560 127 271 89 88 2,406 2,956 394 321 176 96 227 74 (76) 159 419 3,446 1,560 76 649 105 72 2,317 121 659 180 73 166 85 66 57 312 171 103 3.3 10.1 (1.9) 1.6 0.5 1.4 3.7 2.2 1.2 0.0 (1.6) 0.9 1.4 (1.0) 0.4 4.8 (5.8) (3.1) 2.5 n.m (0.5) 1.4 0.4 (0.4) (2.7) (0.7) 1.2 (0.0) 1.7 (8.1) (3.7) 0.5 (2.2) (5.1) (4.6) 1.9 (1.1) 0.7 (2.8) (4.6) 85 886 47 719 809 195 578 135 273 95 98 2,636 3,244 404 338 171 106 300 86 204 164 520 3,002 1,738 75 711 106 79 2,490 156 825 197 110 197 97 71 67 332 184 158 85 945 50 735 816 196 586 136 276 95 97 2,653 3,271 396 339 167 107 296 83 195 165 516 3,026 1,720 77 711 107 80 2,548 138 802 198 119 187 89 71 66 342 180 152 CS vs consen. (% difference) % chg. FY1 FY2 0.2 6.7 4.8 2.2 0.8 0.4 1.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 (1.0) 0.7 0.8 (2.0) 0.3 (2.2) 0.5 (1.4) (3.2) (4.3) 0.5 (0.7) 0.8 (1.1) 2.0 0.1 1.0 1.3 2.3 (11.3) (2.8) 0.8 8.5 (5.4) (8.4) (0.2) (1.8) 3.2 (2.1) (4.0) (4.8) 8.5 14.3 2.5 6.2 15.1 (4.6) 0.3 2.2 (3.6) (8.3) 0.7 (1.0) 9.1 2.5 (7.1) 5.5 (11.2) (11.2) n.m 0.3 12.5 6.6 (9.8) 22.7 (8.3) 16.9 2.7 (4.7) 3.0 (5.8) 3.8 155.9 1.0 10.2 0.5 0.7 3.4 (1.5) 1.5 (6.7) (9.1) 7.0 (12.0) (3.4) 17.7 (4.5) 2.2 5.7 (1.0) (17.1) 3.6 (0.0) 11.1 7.4 (2.7) 4.0 (4.5) (11.6) 47.0 (5.6) 16.6 9.2 (15.4) 21.3 (3.4) 17.5 (2.9) (1.6) (3.0) (0.8) 5.5 60.8 3.2 (16.4) (2.6) 1.0 4.2 (1.3) 4.2 Target price Pre Post 0.60 1.30 0.75 4.00 4.90 1.33 2.63 1.22 2.01 2.30 2.20 17.70 14.20 4.45 2.85 1.10 1.07 2.50 1.45 1.20 1.46 3.85 1.30 1.63 1.18 12.33 2.00 1.90 8.90 2.93 1.80 8.30 1.16 2.80 1.40 0.50 2.35 2.18 2.80 2.00 1.00 1.50 0.90 4.70 5.50 1.38 2.68 1.22 2.02 2.40 2.20 20.00 14.90 4.45 2.85 1.10 1.07 2.50 1.45 1.20 1.46 3.85 1.30 1.63 1.15 12.65 2.00 1.90 9.00 3.08 1.75 9.50 1.16 2.80 1.40 0.50 2.50 2.15 2.80 2.00 Rating Pre Post N N N N O O U N N N U U N N N O O N N N N O O N N O O O U O O O O O N O N O N O N N N N O O U N N N U N N N N O O N N N N O O N N O O O U O O O O O N O N O N O
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Singapore 4Q11 Report Card
Figure 12: Reported company results (continued)
Bloomberg Company SGX SP CD SP ST SP KEP SP KPLD SP GE SP CMA SP COS SP SUN SP MRT SP GENS SP AMTK SP SIA SP RLS SP WIL SP MIDAS SP MII SP CAPL SP TGR SP SGX CD SingTel Keppel KepLand GE CMA COSCO SUNT SMRT GENS Amtek (US$) SIA RLS Wilmar (US$) Midas (Rmb) Mewah (US$) CapitaLand Tiger Date Yearof end Period results Jun Dec Mar Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Mar Dec Jun Mar Jun Dec Dec Dec Dec Mar 2Q 4Q 3Q 4Q 4Q 4Q 4Q 4Q 4Q 3Q 4Q 2Q 3Q 2Q 4Q 4Q 4Q 4Q 3Q Jan-16 Feb-13 Feb-13 Jan-26 Jan-19 Feb-14 Feb-10 Feb-23 Jan-19 Jan-31 Feb-22 Feb-13 Feb-02 Feb-08 Feb-22 Feb-29 Feb-28 Feb-14 Jan-30 Market cap (S$ mn) 7,716 3,189 49,897 19,736 5,096 6,546 5,866 2,620 2,745 2,630 19,578 378 12,934 420 32,264 463 799 12,903 644 Pre 326 262 3,776 1,711 374 571 210 160 198 153 1,264 55 436 23 2,161 288 83 720 10 Credit Suisse net profit (S$ mn) FY1 FY2 Post % chg. Pre Post 312 251 3,615 1,637 358 545 200 152 186 139 1,154 48 368 19 1,708 203 55 414 (106) (4.1) (4.1) (4.3) (4.3) (4.4) (4.5) (4.9) (5.2) (5.7) (8.7) (8.7) (12.1) (15.6) (19.1) (21.0) (29.5) (33.1) (42.5) n.m 379 281 4,136 1,312 442 649 250 170 196 170 1,454 63 793 13 2,399 372 86 852 58 372 270 3,957 1,334 400 613 239 166 182 156 1,350 57 597 10 1,995 273 55 558 22 % chg. (1.9) (3.8) (4.3) 1.7 (9.5) (5.7) (4.5) (2.4) (7.2) (8.1) (7.1) (10.5) (24.7) (26.6) (16.8) (26.5) (36.8) (34.5) (62.4) Pre 314 246 3,776 1,558 384 571 244 151 164 147 1,202 46 531 26 2,006 224 68 636 (73) Consensus net profit (S$ mn) FY1 FY2 Post % chg. Pre Post 303 250 3,725 1,542 369 545 224 141 177 142 1,134 43 502 21 1,737 217 66 606 (88) (3.4) 1.6 (1.4) (1.0) (3.8) (4.5) (8.1) (6.5) 8.0 (3.4) (5.6) (7.2) (5.3) (19.6) (13.4) (3.0) (2.4) (4.8) n.m 345 253 4,125 1,593 409 649 280 154 164 163 1,439 58 710 24 2,224 283 65 863 21 330 255 4,035 1,587 383 613 261 143 171 156 1,369 53 638 13 1,925 275 63 782 12 CS vs consen. (% difference) % chg. FY1 FY2 (4.2) 0.8 (2.2) (0.4) (6.5) (5.7) (6.7) (7.5) 4.2 (4.2) (4.9) (7.9) (10.2) (44.3) (13.4) (2.6) (2.8) (9.4) (43.1) 3.0 0.5 (2.9) 6.2 (3.2) 0.0 (10.8) 7.5 5.0 (2.0) 1.8 12.5 (26.7) (9.1) (1.7) (6.6) (16.3) (31.6) n.m 12.7 5.9 (1.9) (15.9) 4.5 0.0 (8.5) 16.6 6.4 0.2 (1.3) 7.1 (6.4) (25.6) 3.6 (0.7) (13.6) (28.7) 82.7 Target price Pre Post 5.85 1.85 3.56 12.40 2.95 20.00 1.77 0.60 1.10 1.75 2.50 0.95 11.00 0.45 6.70 0.40 0.51 3.50 0.73 5.65 1.85 3.49 12.40 2.92 20.00 1.82 0.60 1.15 1.65 2.50 0.90 10.80 0.45 6.00 0.40 0.55 3.58 0.55 Rating Pre Post U O O O N O O U U U O O N N O N U O U U O O O N O O U U U O O N N O N U O U
= above expectations,
= in line with expectations,
= below expectation.
Source: Datastream, Bloomberg, Company data, Credit Suisse estimates
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Companies Mentioned (Price as of 29 Feb 12) Amtek Engineering Ltd. (AMEL.SI, S$0.73, OUTPERFORM, TP S$0.90) ARA Asset Management (ARAM.SI, S$1.40, NEUTRAL, TP S$1.45) Ascendas REIT (AEMN.SI, S$2.06, NEUTRAL, TP S$2.02) Ascott Residence Trust (ASRT.SI, S$1.07, NEUTRAL, TP S$1.15) Biosensors International Group Ltd. (BIOS.SI, S$1.46, OUTPERFORM, TP S$2.00) CapitaCommercial Trust (CACT.SI, S$1.19, OUTPERFORM, TP S$1.38) Capitaland (CATL.SI, S$3.08, OUTPERFORM, TP S$3.58) CapitaMall Trust (CMLT.SI, S$1.80, OUTPERFORM, TP S$2.15) CapitaMalls Asia (CMAL.SI, S$1.54, OUTPERFORM, TP S$1.82) CDL Hospitality Trusts (CDLT.SI, S$1.72, OUTPERFORM, TP S$2.00) City Developments (CTDM.SI, S$11.13, OUTPERFORM, TP S$12.65) ComfortDelGro (CMDG.SI, S$1.53, OUTPERFORM, TP S$1.85) COSCO Corporation (Singapore) Ltd (COSC.SI, S$1.21, UNDERPERFORM, TP S$0.60) DBS Group (DBSM.SI, S$14.20, NEUTRAL, TP S$14.90) Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCRT.SI, S$1.51, OUTPERFORM, TP S$1.90) Genting Singapore (GENS.SI, S$1.62, OUTPERFORM, TP S$2.50) Great Eastern Holdings (GELA.SI, S$13.73, OUTPERFORM, TP S$20.00) Hi-P International (HIPI.SI, S$0.90, NEUTRAL [V], TP S$1.00) Hong Leong Asia (HLAA.SI, S$2.03, NEUTRAL, TP S$2.40) Hong Leong Finance Ltd. (HLSF.SI, S$2.46, UNDERPERFORM, TP S$2.20) Hyflux Ltd (HYFL.SI, S$1.47, NEUTRAL, TP S$1.40, UNDERWEIGHT) Indofood Agri Resources Ltd (IFAR.SI, S$1.62, NEUTRAL, TP S$1.63) Keppel Corporation (KPLM.SI, S$11.05, OUTPERFORM, TP S$12.40, UNDERWEIGHT) Keppel Land (KLAN.SI, S$3.42, NEUTRAL, TP S$2.92) K-REIT Asia (KASA.SI, S$0.93, OUTPERFORM, TP S$1.16) M1 Limited (MONE.SI, S$2.50, NEUTRAL, TP S$2.80) Mapletree Commercial Trust (MACT.SI, S$0.87, OUTPERFORM [V], TP S$1.07) Mapletree Industrial Trust (MAPI.SI, S$1.18, NEUTRAL, TP S$1.22) Mapletree Logistics Trust (MAPL.SI, S$0.90, OUTPERFORM, TP S$1.09) Mewah International (MEWI.SI, S$0.55, UNDERPERFORM, TP S$0.55) Midas Holding Ltd (MIDA.SI, S$0.40, NEUTRAL [V], TP S$0.40) Neptune Orient Lines (NEPS.SI, S$1.34, NEUTRAL, TP S$1.20) Noble Group Ltd (NOBG.SI, S$1.42, OUTPERFORM [V], TP S$1.75) Olam (OLAM.SI, S$2.38, OUTPERFORM, TP S$3.85) Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC.SI, S$8.98, UNDERPERFORM, TP S$9.00) Overseas Union Enterprise (OVES.SI, S$2.49, OUTPERFORM, TP S$3.08) Raffles Education (RLSE.SI, S$0.46, NEUTRAL, TP S$0.45) Raffles Medical Group (RAFG.SI, S$2.33, NEUTRAL, TP S$2.50) Sakari Resources Ltd (SAKR.SI, S$2.66, NEUTRAL, TP S$2.50) SATS Ltd (SATS.SI, S$2.43, OUTPERFORM, TP S$2.80) Sembcorp Industries Limited (SCIL.SI, S$5.29, OUTPERFORM, TP S$5.50, UNDERWEIGHT) Sembcorp Marine Ltd. (SCMN.SI, S$5.35, NEUTRAL, TP S$4.70, UNDERWEIGHT) Singapore Airlines (SIAL.SI, S$11.02, NEUTRAL, TP S$10.80) Singapore Exchange Limited (SGXL.SI, S$7.21, UNDERPERFORM, TP S$5.65) Singapore Press Holdings (SPRM.SI, S$3.79, NEUTRAL, TP S$4.45) Singapore Telecom (STEL.SI, S$3.17, OUTPERFORM, TP S$3.49) SMRT (SMRT.SI, S$1.74, UNDERPERFORM, TP S$1.65) ST Engineering (STEG.SI, S$3.18, UNDERPERFORM, TP S$2.68, UNDERWEIGHT) StarHub Ltd (STAR.SI, S$2.94, NEUTRAL, TP S$2.85) STX OSV Holdings Ltd (STXO.SI, S$1.67, NEUTRAL, TP S$1.50, UNDERWEIGHT) Suntec REIT (SUNT.SI, S$1.23, UNDERPERFORM, TP S$1.15) Tat Hong Holdings Ltd (TAT.SI, S$0.88, NEUTRAL, TP S$0.90) Tiger Airways (TAHL.SI, S$0.80, UNDERPERFORM, TP S$0.55) United Overseas Bank (UOBH.SI, S$18.05, NEUTRAL, TP S$20.00) Venture Corporation (VENM.SI, S$8.43, OUTPERFORM, TP S$9.50) Wilmar International Ltd (WLIL.SI, S$5.11, OUTPERFORM, TP S$6.00) Wing Tai Holdings (WTHS.SI, S$1.28, NEUTRAL, TP S$1.46) Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Ltd (YAZG.SI, S$1.36, OUTPERFORM, TP S$1.30) Yongnam Holdings Ltd (YNAM.SI, S$0.26, OUTPERFORM, TP S$0.50)
Singapore 4Q11 Report Card
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Disclosure Appendix
Important Global Disclosures I, Tricia Song, certify that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about all of the subject companies and securities and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received compensation that is based upon various factors including Credit Suisse's total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Credit Suisse's investment banking activities. Analysts’ stock ratings are defined as follows: Outperform (O): The stock’s total return is expected to outperform the relevant benchmark* by at least 10-15% (or more, depending on perceived risk) over the next 12 months. Neutral (N): The stock’s total return is expected to be in line with the relevant benchmark* (range of ±10-15%) over the next 12 months. Underperform (U): The stock’s total return is expected to underperform the relevant benchmark* by 10-15% or more over the next 12 months. *Relevant benchmark by region: As of 29th May 2009, Australia, New Zealand, U.S. and Canadian ratings are based on (1) a stock’s absolute total return potential to its current share price and (2) the relative attractiveness of a stock’s total return potential within an analyst’s coverage universe**, with Outperforms representing the most attractive, Neutrals the less attractive, and Underperforms the least attractive investment opportunities. Some U.S. and Canadian ratings may fall outside the absolute total return ranges defined above, depending on market conditions and industry factors. For Latin American, Japanese, and non-Japan Asia stocks, ratings are based on a stock’s total return relative to the average total return of the relevant country o for European stocks, ratings are based on a stock’s total return relative to the analyst's coverage universe**. For Australian and New Zealand stocks, 12-month rolling yield is incorporated in the absolute total return calculation and a 15% and a 7.5% threshold replace the 10-15% level in the Outperform and Underperform stock rating definitions, respectively. The 15% and 7.5% thresholds replace the +10-15% and -10-15% levels in the Neutral stock rating definition, respectively. **An analyst's coverage universe consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector. Restricted (R): In certain circumstances, Credit Suisse policy and/or applicable law and regulations preclude certain types of communications, including an investment recommendation, during the course of Credit Suisse's engagement in an investment banking transaction and in certain other circumstances. Volatility Indicator [V]: A stock is defined as volatile if the stock price has moved up or down by 20% or more in a month in at least 8 of the past 24 months or the analyst expects significant volatility going forward. Analysts’ coverage universe weightings are distinct from analysts’ stock ratings and are based on the expected performance of an analyst’s coverage universe* versus the relevant broad market benchmark**: Overweight: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months. Market Weight: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months. Underweight: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months. *An analyst’s coverage universe consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector. **The broad market benchmark is based on the expected return of the local market index (e.g., the S&P 500 in the U.S.) over the next 12 months. Credit Suisse’s distribution of stock ratings (and banking clients) is: Global Ratings Distribution Outperform/Buy* 46% (60% banking clients) Neutral/Hold* 42% (57% banking clients) Underperform/Sell* 10% (47% banking clients) Restricted 2%
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Singapore 4Q11 Report Card
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Commission is the commission rate or the amount agreed with a customer when setting up an account or at anytime after that. Taiwanese Disclosures: This research report is for reference only. Investors should carefully consider their own investment risk. Investment results are the responsibility of the individual investor. Reports may not be reprinted without permission of CS. Reports written by Taiwan-based analysts on non-Taiwan listed companies are not considered recommendations to buy or sell securities under Taiwan Stock Exchange Operational Regulations Governing Securities Firms Recommending Trades in Securities to Customers. To the extent this is a report authored in whole or in part by a non-U.S. analyst and is made available in the U.S., the following are important disclosures regarding any non-U.S. analyst contributors: The non-U.S. research analysts listed below (if any) are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. The non-U.S. research analysts listed below may not be associated persons of CSSU and therefore may not be subject to the NASD Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. ? Kwee Hong Ching, non-U.S. analyst, is a research analyst employed by Credit Suisse AG, Singapore Branch. ? Tricia Song, non-U.S. analyst, is a research analyst employed by Credit Suisse AG, Singapore Branch. ? Sakthi Siva, non-U.S. analyst, is a research analyst employed by Credit Suisse AG, Singapore Branch. Important MSCI Disclosures The MSCI sourced information is the exclusive property of Morgan Stanley Capital International Inc. (MSCI). Without prior written permission of MSCI, this information and any other MSCI intellectual property may not be reproduced, re-disseminated or used to create any financial products, including any indices. This information is provided on an “as is” basis. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, its affiliates and any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information have any liability for any damages of any kind. MSCI, Morgan Stanley Capital International and the MSCI indexes are services marks of MSCI and its affiliates. The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) was developed by and is the exclusive property of Morgan Stanley Capital International Inc. and Standard & Poor’s. GICS is a service mark of MSCI and S&P and has been licensed for use by Credit Suisse. For Credit Suisse disclosure information on other companies mentioned in this report, please visit the website at /researchdisclosures or call +1 (877) 291-2683. Disclaimers continue on next page.
Singapore 4Q11 Report Card
05 March 2012 Asia Pacific/Singapore Equity Research
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