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Asia Pacific Equity Research
19 August 2015
China Resources Power Holdings (836 HK)
Core profit ahead of estimates
Price: HK$19.26 14 Aug 2015 Price Target: HK$20.80 PT End Date: 30 Jun 2016
? Strong core 1H15 results beat: CRP announced 1H15 results today. Stripping away non-core items of HK$1.2B (mainly impairment charges, see table on page 3 for details), core pre-tax profit of HK$11.9B represented 28% Y/Y growth and was ahead of market estimates. We believe the discrepancy came from (1) a higher-than-expected coal price decline (down 19% Y/Y vs. 15% Y/Y for Datang), and (2) stronger-than-expected profit contributions from the Renewable segment (+42% Y/Y). ? Rmb exposure: Management planned to reduce exposure to foreign currency debt from 39.6% as of Jun 2015 (US$: 6% HK$: 34%) to &30% by end of next year. In fact, US$500MM of loans have already been repaid since Jun 2015. Based on the company’s financial position as of Jun 2015, management estimated that every 1% Rmb depreciation would lead to a pre-tax loss of HK$196MM. ? Coal price outlook: Following a 20% Y/Y decline in 1H15, management now guided to a 16-17% Y/Y full-year unit fuel cost decline (1H2015 guidance: 1% Y/Y decline). This translates into a full-year unit fuel cost of Rmb153/MWh, or 2% down H/H. ? Asset impairment charges: Asset impairment amounted to HK$1.2B in 1H15 (1H14: HK$2.0B), mainly comprising (1) HK$451MM on power business, including HK$268 on the shut down of 200MW Tangshan Thermal Power, HK$85MM on 180MW gas-fired power plant in GZ, and HK$53MM on desulfurization equipment in NJ), (2) bad debt provisions, including HK$226MM entrusted loans due from a JV with Shanxi CR Daning (coal mine business) and HK$63MM on a receivable from a debtor of Shanxi CR Liansheng, and (3) goodwill write-off of HK$195MM/HK$180MM/HK$51MM in respect of certain power/coal projects acquired (CR Tianneng Xuzhou/Shenhai Thermal Power, Xingning). On aggregate, a total of HK$8.2B of impairment charges have been made over the past 18 months. ? Direct power purchase amounted to 6.8% of total power sales in 1H15, up from 4.7% in 1H14. Management expected DPP to account for 7.7% on a full-year basis. Specifically, the company enjoys strong dominance in Henan’s DPP market with a share of 60%. Management attributed this to its (1) high reliability in power supply, and (2) strong relationship with certain major power users in the province. ? Coal mine business: Management does not have any plans to dispose of its coal mine asset business at this point in time, but will analyze the exact situation on a mine-by-mine basis. ? Potential dividend hike: The company’s FCF further expanded to HK$9.3B in 1H15 (1H14: HK$1.4B). Management expected the dividend payout to increase over time, but no further details were provided. ? Ultra-low emissions: Management sees strong business opportunities in ultra-low-emission coal-fired units. On top of the lower emissions (NOx, SOx, dust), certain local governments are offering additional incentives such as higher tariffs (Rmb10/MWh) and/or higher utilization hours (+200 hours). Unit capex amounted to Rmb/kw for new units and Rmb330/kw for old units. Management targeted to install 8.3GW/9.6GW/3.2GW of coal-fired units with these new low-emission facilities. ? Utilization: Management targeted 5,000 utilization hours on a full-year basis, equivalent to a 6% Y/Y decline in FY15 and a 6% decline in 2H15. ? Better risk-reward in China Power International (CPI)/Huadian Power International (Huadian): We believe the market will react positively to the strong interim results in the near term. That said, we see better risk-reward in CPI (asset injections) and Huadian (resilient utilization & more inland coal price
downside), given its (1) uncertainty on further impairment provisions, and (2) foreign-currency exposure (highest among listed peers). Moreover, one of CRP’s strengths in the past was its lower cost of debt from US$/HK$ loans, but such an advantage will be eroded over time as its debt portfolio mix shifts northbound to Rmb. Investment Thesis China Resources Power is a flagship subsidiary of China Resources (Holdings) Company Limited, engaged in the investment, development, operation and management of power plants. As of 30 June 2014, the operational attributable installed capacity of CR Power was 30GW. We rate CRP Neutral due to potential downside on thermal utilization (coastal exposure) and coal mine business (falling production and ASP). Valuation Our Jun-16 PT of HK$20.8 is based on a 10-year DCF assuming a WACC of 8.4% and 2% terminal growth. Risks to Rating and Price Target Upside risks to our rating and PT include further decreases in coal prices and utilization recovery. Downside risks include spot coal spiking up in light of temporary railway transportation disruption, and further IPP tariff cuts under the current coal-cost pass through mechanism.
China power
boris.cw. Bloomberg JPMA KAN &GO&
elaine. J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
T a b l e 1: Summary of 1H15 results under IFRS
HK$MM Total net generation (GWh) Turnover Fuel Cost Repair & Maintenance Other income/ expenses Total Cash Costs EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Finance Costs Associate/JCE Results Faire value change financial instruments EBT Taxation 1H12 76,590 30,945 (18,847) (543) (3,381) (22,771) 8,173 (3,067) 5,106 (2,007) 765 1 3,865 (350) 1H13 83,745 32,347 (15,876) (761) (3,918) (20,556) 11,791 (3,451) 8,340 (1,704) 1,062 1 7,699 (1,558) 1H14 66,106 35,826 (16,407) (830) (6,168) (23,404) 12,422 (4,080) 8,342 (1,548) 584 575 7,953 (2,022) 1H15 71,716 36,942 (14,204) (967) (5,338) (20,508) 16,434 (4,861) 11,573 (1,464) 614 14 10,738 (2,725) Y/Y 8 3 (13) 16 (13) (12) 32 19 39 (5) 5 (98) 35 35 2H12 37,416 31,491 (16,742) (602) (4,093) (21,437) 10,054 (3,116) 6,938 (1,829) 968 (39) 6,039 (829) 2H13 41,702 37,234 (17,191) (818) (6,142) (24,151) 13,083 (3,920) 9,163 (1,624) 898 1 8,439 (1,994) 2H14 65,930 34,855 (14,637) (932) (7,293) (22,862) 11,992 (4,520) 7,472 (1,777) (1,295) (1,169) 3,231 (2,269)
62,436 (35,589) (1,145) (7,474) (44,208) 18,227 (6,183) 12,044 (3,836) 1,734 (38) 9,904 (1,179)
69,582 (33,067) (1,580) (10,060) (44,707) 24,874 (7,371) 17,503 (3,328) 1,961 2 16,137 (3,552)
70,681 (31,044) (1,762) (13,460) (46,267) 24,414 (8,600) 15,814 (3,325) (710) (594) 11,184 (4,291)
Minority interests Net profit EPS (Basic, HK$) DPS Margins EBITDA margin EBIT margin Net margin Effective tax rate Dividend Payout ratio Segment analysis Coal-fired power revenue Renewable energy revenue Coal mining revenue Segment profit on coal-fired power Segment profit on renewable energy Segment profit on coal mining Segment margin on coal-fire power Segment margin on renewable energy Segment margin on coal mining
(513) 3,002 0.63 0.06 26.4% 16.5% 9.7% 11.3% 9.5% 28,424 0 2,520 4,279 0 798 15.1% 0.0% 31.7%
(810) 5,331 1.13 0.08 36.5% 25.8% 16.5% 23.5% 7.1% 28,323 1,700 2,324 6,819 1,039 688 24.1% 61.1% 29.6%
133 6,064 1.28 0.08 34.7% 23.3% 16.9% 27.4% 6.3% 31,594 2,272 1,960 9,046 1,284 (1,775) 28.6% 56.5% -90.6%
(1,200) 6,813 1.43 0.10 44.5% 31.3% 18.4% 26.9% 7.0% 32,338 2,988 1,617 10,646 1,821 (645) 32.9% 60.9% -39.9%
(1,006) 12 12 25 9.8 8.0 1.5 -0.5 0.7 2 31 (17) 18 42 (64) 4.3 4.4 50.7
(733) 4,477 0.96 0.45 31.9% 22.0% 14.2% 16.4% 47.0% 26,985 0 2,023 5,720 0 (23) 21.2% 0.0% -1.1%
(760) 5,685 1.19 0.67 35.1% 24.6% 15.3% 26.4% 56.3% 32,231 1,939 3,065 7,726 995 (354) 24.0% 51.3% -11.5%
2,189 3,151 0.66 0.70 34.4% 21.4% 9.0% 50.1% 106.1% 31,003 2,311 1,541 9,663 1,183 (4,630) 31.2% 51.2% -300.5%
(1,246) 7,479 1.59 0.51 29.2% 19.3% 12.0% 14.4% 32.1% 55,409 2,483 4,543 9,999 1,450 775 18.0% 58.4% 17.1%
(1,570) 11,016 2.32 0.75 35.7% 25.2% 15.8% 25.1% 32.3% 60,553 3,639 5,389 14,544 2,034 334 24.0% 55.9% 6.2%
2,321 9,215 1.94 0.78 34.5% 22.4% 13.0% 36.1% 40.2% 62,597 4,584 3,500 18,709 2,468 (6,405) 29.9% 53.8% -183.0%
Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan calculations
Table 1: Core profit analysis
HK$MM PBT - reported FV change on derivative financial Gain on disposal of equity investment Impairment charges Exchange losses Insurance indemnities Total non-core items PBT - Core NP - reported NP - Core 1H14 7,953 (575) (276) 1,999 277 1,425 9,378 6,064 5,626 1H15 10,738 14 (41) 1,168 124 -21 1,244 11,982 6,813 6,861 28% 12% 22% Y/Y 35%
Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan calculations
Other Companies Discussed in This Report (all prices in this report as of market close on 18 August 2015) China Power International (2380.HK/HK$5.47/Overweight), Huadian Power International Corporation Limited - H (1071.HK/HK$6.94/Overweight)
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? Client: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following company(ies) as clients: Huadian Power International Corporation Limited - H. ? Client/Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following company(ies) as clients, and the services
provided were non-investment-banking, securities-related: Huadian Power International Corporation Limited - H.
? Non-Investment Banking Compensation: J.P. Morgan has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services other than investment banking from Huadian Power International Corporation Limited - H. Company-Specific Disclosures: Important disclosures, including price charts and credit opinion history tables, are available for compendium reports and all J.P. MorganCcovered
companies by visiting /research/disclosures, calling 1-800-477-0406, or e-mailing research.disclosure. with your request. J.P. Morgan’s Strategy, Technical, and Quantitative Research teams may screen companies not covered by J.P. Morgan. For important disclosures for these companies, please call 1-800-477-0406 or e-mail research.disclosure..
Date 03-Oct-06 17-Nov-06 30-May-07 20-Aug-07 05-Oct-07 12-Dec-07 13-Mar-08 31-Mar-08 02-Sep-08 04-Nov-08 24-Aug-09 06-Aug-10 15-Feb-11 18-Mar-11 23-Aug-11 22-Feb-12 20-Mar-12 20-May-12 20-Aug-12 07-Feb-13 19-Mar-13 13-May-13 31-May-13 12-Aug-13 16-Oct-13 05-Feb-14 19-Aug-14 19-Dec-14 11-Feb-15 24-Jun-15 Rating Share Price Price (HK$) Target (HK $) N 8.09 7.80 N 10.53 11.20 N 14.20 12.20 N 14.89 18.00 N 27.60 29.50 N 27.60 28.60 N 14.02 16.00 N 15.03 18.10 N 18.13 16.10 N 13.95 18.50 N 19.82 21.20 OW 17.12 22.00 OW 13.04 18.50 OW 13.48 20.00 OW 13.70 16.90 OW 15.10 19.24 OW 15.22 18.10 OW 14.00 19.00 OW 17.18 18.60 OW 22.35 26.00 OW 20.20 28.00 N 22.70 23.30 NR 20.45 -N 18.58 19.50 OW 19.56 23.50 OW 18.46 26.60 OW 22.20 28.50 N 19.42 22.50 N 19.58 19.80 N 20.90 20.80
Date 06-Aug-10 15-Feb-11 22-Feb-12 24-Mar-12 20-May-12 20-Aug-12 07-Feb-13 21-Mar-13 12-Jul-13 18-Aug-13 16-Oct-13 15-Aug-14 19-Dec-14 11-Feb-15 20-May-15 24-Jun-15
Rating Share Price Price (HK$) Target (HK $) N 1.72 1.86 N 1.54 1.60 N 2.05 2.10 N 1.68 2.00 N 1.66 2.10 N 2.16 2.10 N 2.84 2.70 N 2.48 2.70 OW 2.73 3.40 OW 2.87 3.90 OW 3.01 4.00 OW 3.23 4.20 OW 3.55 4.80 OW 3.90 4.60 OW 5.09 6.20 OW 5.56 6.80
Date 20-Aug-12 07-Feb-13 12-Jul-13 16-Oct-13 24-Jun-15
Rating Share Price Price (HK$) Target (HK $) UW 2.46 2.00 N 3.29 3.40 OW 3.50 4.30 OW 3.24 4.50 OW 8.10 10.30
The chart(s) show J.P. Morgan's continuing co the current analysts may or may not have covered it over the entire period. J.P. Morgan ratings or designations: OW = Overweight, N= Neutral, UW = Underweight, NR = Not Rated Explanation of Equity Research Ratings, Designations and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe: J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Underweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Not Rated (NR): J.P. Morgan has removed the rating and, if applicable, the price target, for this stock because of
either a lack of a sufficient fundamental basis or for legal, regulatory or policy reasons. The previous rating and, if applicable, the price target, no longer should be relied upon. An NR designation is not a recommendation or a rating. In our Asia (ex-Australia) and U.K. small- and mid-cap equity research, each stock’s expected total return is compared to the expected total return of a benchmark country market index, not to those analysts’ coverage universe. If it does not appear in the Important Disclosures section of this report, the certifying analyst’s coverage universe can be found on J.P. Morgan’s research website, . Coverage Universe: Kan, Boris: CGN Meiya Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (1811.HK), CGN Power Co., Ltd. (1816.HK), China High Speed Transmission (0658.HK), China Longyuan Power Group Corp. (0916.HK), China Power International (2380.HK), China Resources Power Holdings (0836.HK), China Yangtze Power Co., Ltd - A (600900.SS), Datang International - A (601991.SS), Datang International - H (0991.HK), GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited (3800.HK), Huadian Fuxin Energy Corporation Limited (0816.HK), Huadian Power International Corporation Limited - A (600027.SS), Huadian Power International Corporation Limited - H (1071.HK), Huaneng Power Int'l - A (600011.SS), Huaneng Power Int'l - H (0902.HK), Huaneng Renewables Corporation Limited (0958.HK), JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (JKS), SDIC Power Holdings Co., Ltd - A (600886.SS), Sichuan Chuantou Energy Co Ltd - A (600674.SS), Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology - A (002202.SZ), Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology - H (2208.HK) J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of June 30, 2015
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